Israel encourging Bush to attack Iran?
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7/4/2008 2:54 PM


Culture-Monger

Culture-MongerCulture-MongerCulture-MongerCulture-MongerCulture-MongerCulture-MongerCulture-MongerCulture-Monger

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Personally, there are some days where I wish I could just throw a sheet over my head. Those girls have got the right ideas! No more catcalls either.
7/10/2008 6:53 PM


Impeached by a patch

Impeached by a patch

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So, Scipio, the only reason you can give for why everyone else should be content to live or die on the whim and pleasure of the Kremlin and the White House is that there's not a damn thing they can do about it?

I find your answer not only to be bullying, but quite absurd too. It is true that few countries could afford to build and maintain nuclear arsenals the size of the US and Russia, but you don't need to do that to be able to pose a nuclear deterrent.

As long as you have a global delivery system, how many nukes would you need? 100? Would 10 be enough? Would *you* be willing to sacrifice the 10 biggest US cities to be able to wreak even more nuclear destruction on my country during any hypothetical circumstances? Would you even be willing to sacrifice a single one? NYC is quite big and significant, only in itself more populous than many countries.
7/10/2008 7:47 PM


Grognard fantôme

Grognard fantôme

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You and I both know it is irrelevant. The Yanks and Russkies would never let anyone get anything like a global delivery system that would actually upset the balance of power.

I'm not justifying the power balance, just pointing it out. Indeed, I'd argue that it remains a highly unjust balance; until such time as Russia is as democratic and beneficient as Germany or Japan, and places like Syria and Iran have no post-commie umbrella to get shade under, the balance remains insufficiently just for humanity.

7/11/2008 7:56 AM


Impeached by a patch

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Really now? What did the Yanks and the Russkies do to stop the Brits, French and Chinese from getting a global delivery capability behind their nukes?

How many countries have military submarines? How many countries have space programs? From having either of those, the step needed to have a global delivery system would not be that big. Heck, one nuclear submarine on the Atlantic coast and one on the Pacific coast would be enough to hit most US targets of value. One in the Arctic sea and one in the Gulf of Finland would be enough to hit most Russian targets of value.

History has shown so far that while the nuclear ambitions of countries get widely condemned while they are underway, the world is very quick to accept the nukes as a fact once they have been finished. Even to the point of appeasing their owners as long as they show that they can be reasoned with. If I was the Caliph, I would get a badass nuclear arsenal in no time
7/11/2008 8:10 AM


Grognard fantôme

Grognard fantôme

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What did the Yanks and the Russkies do to stop the Brits, French and Chinese from getting a global delivery capability behind their nukes?

My understanding is the Yanks HELPED the Brits and French, and I would not be surprised if the Russkies helped the Chinese to get their first programs.

You are correct in the sense that the Russians helped the Pakistanis, and likely the Indians as well, and the Americans likely helped the Israelis.

But global delivery systems are a different story.

Let me rephrase: if PR and strategic expediency for some reason obviates the Western motive to smack Iran's burgeoning efforts, and Russia's efforts to help Iran get nukes succeeds, you and I both know that the consequence will be U.S. will then "help" Saudi, and Israel (Turkey?) to get the means to nullify that capacity.

We are led back to my balance of power argument: the balance of power remains Western Powers vs. Post-Commie Powers and her allies.

7/12/2008 6:02 AM


Udderly ridiculous

Udderly ridiculous

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Iraqi official says Israel using Iraqi airspace and bases to prepare for strike against Iran.

US and Israel: "Nuh uh!"

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/2008/07/11/Report_Israeli_planes_fly_drills_in_Iraq/UPI-68211215793248/
7/12/2008 8:51 AM


Grognard fantôme

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Weren't we talking about suitcase nukes in this thread? Who needs a suitcase nuke when you can get a "mini-nuke," e.g., something along the lines of the warhead from a retired Davy Crockett M-388 tactical nuclear recoilless rifle?

The M-388 round used a version of the W54 warhead, a very small sub-kiloton fission device. The Mk-54 weighed about 51 lb (23 kg), with a selectable yield of 10 or 20 tons (very close to the minimum practical size and yield for a fission warhead) up to 0.5 kiloton. The complete round weighed 76 lb (34.5 kg). It was 31 in. (78.7 cm) long with a diameter of 11 in. (28 cm) at its widest point; a subcaliber piston at the back of the shell was actually inserted into the launcher's barrel for firing. [1]

True, not exactly suitcase sized; but 79cm x 28cm and 23kg is certainly small enough to be toted around on a workman's hand truck or mail carrier's cart, let alone in the trunk of a car, parked in a car-park in the middle of some other high-pop density area (University, city center, amusement park, etc.). A reasonably strong person could carry it under one arm . . .

The Davy Crockett could be launched from either of two launchers: the 4-inch (102 mm) M28, with a range of about 1.25 mi (2 km), or the 6-in (155 mm) M29, with a range of 2.5 mi (4 km). Both weapons used the same projectile, and could be mounted on a tripod launcher or carried by truck or armored personnel carrier. They were operated by a three-man crew. [2]

Obviously a launcher is pretty irrelvant for any terrorist intentions, but if it was so easy to produce, so stable, and so readily attached to a rifle, why are these things not all over the place!?
 
ADDIT: on second thought, maybe the launcher would actually be really useful for a terrorist attack, see below . . .
 
Production of the Davy Crockett began in 1956, with a total of 2,100 being made. The weapon was deployed with U.S. Army forces from 1961 to 1971.
 
So this is 40+ year old technology, which was sufficiently reliable and efficient to produce that the U.S. had 2100 of them made, and they were actually deployed with European defense elements until 1971. Most likely the only reason they were un-deployed is because something better was developed!
 
So again my question: why does Iran NOT have these? Why does Al Qaeda or Hamas, NOT have these sorts of things? Could it be because they have not yet developed the nuclear infrastructure to be able to produce such things, and that the black market from Russia, Pakistan, RNK, China, etc., is just too problematic/expensive?
 
Both recoilless guns proved to have poor accuracy in testing, so the shell's greatest effect would have been its extreme radiation hazard. Even at a low yield setting, the M388 would produce an almost instantly lethal radiation dosage (in excess of 10,000 rem) within 500 feet (150 m), and a probably fatal dose (around 600 rem) within a quarter mile (400 meters). [3]

600 rem at 400m, so probably still 10 or 20 rem at 700m (~half-mile). Basically anything above 100 rem and you are going to get very sick and with increasing levels of fatalities (estimated at 10% at 100 to 200 rem; est at 60% fatality at 400-600rem). Moreover, even if you only get exposed to 50 or 60 rem, and don't die, you will NOT be a happy camper, may never be able to reproduce, and may well die of cancer much earlier than otherwise.

I would say that: picking the right spot, one of these babies could be used to cause considerable havoc by a malicious terrorist element. To be objective: it is true that many of the most high-pop-density contexts (e.g., a Manhattan type situation, or a basement car-park of a skyscraper, or a multi-level parking garage of a shopping mall, etc.) are also going to have structural features (namely buildings and floors made of concrete and steel) that will severely limit the effects of both the blast and the radiation exposure . . .

But set off one of these babies inside a stadium with a rock concert, football game, fireworks display, etc., and it seems to me you could EASILY kill 50 to 60,000 people, depending on the popularity of the spectacle in question.

Michigan Stadium e.g., holds ~108,000 to 111,000 people (111 with bands, teams, media, etc.).

Lesse, a football field is maybe 150 total length (including the endzones, etc.) add maybe 100 meters on each end for the seats . . . we're talkin' a concentrated target that is 350 to 450m diameter with up to 111,000 innocent souls just trying to have a good time inside. Detonate a  device comparable to the W54 warhead from a Davy Crockett inside the perimeter of the open interior part of "The Big House" and my guess is you'd kill at least half the spectators, maybe most of them.

. . . . Yeah, preventing THAT would not be worth waterboarding some terrorist scumbag . . .

Now, what was that about "everyone should be able to have their very own nuclear program?"

 

ADDIT: on second thought, the launcher could be extremely useful. Since 9/11 "security" in places like stadiums has likely gotten a bit more rigorous. But if you can put one of these on a launcher why bother trying to smuggle past stadium security? Get a flat-bed truck and a launcher similar to the old M-29 (couldn't be too hard for a nation like Iran to put together), and make a fresh new Davy Crockett-knockoff device. If you had the infrastucture putting it together might take, what? Six months?
 
Now smuggle it through Mexico into the U.S. . . . hardly a challenge whatsoever. Now get it to where your truck is parked, and mount the M-29 on the truck bed, and create a pullover "cowl" to cover the launcher and crew. Pick a day some 3 to 4 months hence when a big event will be held in some place like "The Big House" (see above), and start figuring out the best fire-locations, and firing-solutions. Mount your M-29 with the pre-set firing-solutions (probably improving accuracy notably) in the bed of the truck. At the right moment (e.g., half-time celebration) drive your truck into position, pull back the cowl, launch your nuke, then detonate a conventional explosive device inside the truck, giving the fanatics their longed-for journey to meet the 92 virgins . . .
 
The more I think about it, the utter ease of pulling an attack like this is very, VERY chilling to consider . . .
7/14/2008 9:22 PM


Grognard fantôme

Grognard fantôme

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Interesting video on the YouTube about the Davy Crocket Nuke

Risky even for the user: sounds ideal for a suicide bomber . . .

7/15/2008 8:38 AM


Udderly ridiculous

Udderly ridiculous

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Scip, Do you spend all your free time (when not on 1bc) on Youtube?