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Grognard fantôme
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| Heh, not often that a joke provokes calculating a binomial probability distribution  It wouldn't really be totally valid to include the West Coast territories. While they were technically "in the Union" they were pretty much irrelevant to the war, were not yet States (so they had no autonomy to decide for themselves whose side they were on) and had very low American pop density. Excluding those this is our dataset | State | Success/Failure? | | Texas | 1 | | Oklahoma | 1 | | Missouri | 1 | | Arkansas | 1 | | Louisiana | 1 | | Kentucky | 1 | | Tennessee | 1 | | Mississippi | 1 | | Alabama | 1 | | Virginia | 1 | | Maryland | 0 | | Delaware | 0 | | North Carolina | 1 | | South Carolina | 1 | | Georgia | 1 | | Florida | 1 | | Minnesota | 1 | | Iowa | 0 | | Wisconsin | 1 | | Illinois | 1 | | Michigan | 1 | | Indiana | 0 | | Ohio | 0 | | Pennsylvania | 1 | | New York | 1 | | New Jersey | 1 | | Vermont | 1 | | New Hampshire | 1 | | Massachusetts | 1 | | Connecticutt | 1 | | Rhode Island | 1 | | Maine | 1 | | Count | 32 | | Sum of Successes | 27 | | % Succesful Trials | 0.84375 |
With "Success" meaning, either a Reb State going Republican in 2004 or did a Union State going Democrat in 2004. Failure being the opposite. The probability of getting 27 successful trials in 32 total trials is way low ~0.0000469 so we can (even without including the West) conclude that there is a non-random patterning here . . . BUT!  The patterning is totally REVERSED what we would have predicted in 1865!! The Democratic party was the "Southern" party and almost without exception, Democrats were in favor of slavery, states rights, etc.! The Republican party was formed out of the ashes of the Whig Party, and its birth was almost entirely a manifestation of an anti-slavery, pro-abolition agenda! People have said that it was the election of Abe Lincoln that provoked the southern states to secede, but we must not forget that Abe was the leader of the REPUBLICAN PARTY, a party whose highest ranking members included some of the most outspoken, radical abolitionists, anti-Democrat Party, and (frankly) anti-South politicians in American history. Thus, we must conclude that this joke is totally in reverse. It is not funny so much as paradoxical. If there was an actual "correlation" we should have seen the Southern States favor Kerry (a member of the political party whose historic moments include backing the secession of the Slave States from the American Union) and the Northern States favor Booshmeister  |
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"'The front' is wherever you stop running away. Get used to it. This is what modern warfare looks like." K T Cat
Edited: 8/1/2008 11:43 PM by Scipio Africanus |  |  |
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Elite Pathogen
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die with honor
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| | Kaboom!
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Grognard fantôme
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| | lame duck
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Elite Pathogen
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