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3/12/2008 12:29 AM


Elite Pathogen

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-The Theory of Evolution is one of the best supported theories we have. Global Warming has only a fraction of the amount, but a fraction is in this case is massive amount.

Well it looks like you couldn't resist anyway so welcome

1) No.

2) Rephrase or the Grammar Police will take you down.

3) Yes, but not in the way you see it in your head.

Hmm, perhaps I should have been clearer.  The "it" is man made global warming, not the debate.  You are also making a lot of assumptions as to how I "see it in my head."  Besides, that is rather irrelevant. 

-No. He's just stupid.

Spoken like a true demagogue.  Hey, you started it .

-Let me just point out one example that's made it's appearance in this thread two times already; the idea that if it's cold outside or snow still falls in winter there can be no global warming. Global Warming refers to the average mean temperature rising, the effects of which is more rainfall in temperate areas, less rainfall in equatorial areas, more frequent and more powerful storms/floods/tornadoes/etc. Wind patterns change, sea levels rise, malaria carrying mosquitoes are starting to expand as more temperate areas become sustainable to them, etc, etc, etc.

I'm aware that the effects of global warming will not be felt equally everywhere.  I put that article to spur discussion.  It is funny that you use the more powerful storms scenario since that is not supported by the facts... which brings us to our next section.

-Now, I was going to respond to the rest of your post but instead I'll just have to ask you to read the Wikipedia articles on the IPCC, the Landsea affair, etc.

I have read the IPCC article.  I even read much of the summary of the IPCC report you linked to.  The question is whether or not they came to their conclusions in an unbiassed manner.  The "Landsea Affair" doesn't exist on Wiki so far as I can tell.  All I can find is this this and this.  Heck, the first one is where I got the link to Landsea's letter.  So go ahead and set me straight. 

And the stupidity of that weather station article is just magnificent, thanks for sharing.

It is rather amusing to see you jump on the "stupid" bandwaggon (not that you're stupid, just quick to call people stupid) and avoid discussing it whatsoever.  If true, it looks rather damning to me.  Having weather stations collect temperature while located on blacktop on buildings in major cities and near transformers is bound to inflate the numbers a bit don'cha think? 

I admit the jury's still out for me whether or not there is a big problem with man made global warming.  Part of the reason I started this thread is so that I can have, what seem like, valid concerns with the concensus to be answered and scrutinized.  Calling everyone who disagrees "stupid" is a rather... well... stupid tactic.  You only put people in the defensive and you look like a jerk .

3/12/2008 1:12 AM


Elite Pathogen

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Black Owl, it is interesting how different parts of the country can be.  We have had storm after storm after storm.  My back is sore from so much shovelling.  My neighbor bought a snowblower because of how harsh this winter has been.  It wasn't until the begining of March that the snow melted enough to have flowers bloom when they normally start in February.  We usually get about a month of the ground being frozen solid but this year it's been 3.  It is feared that we've had a big die off in deer here in Utah as well. 

Hay has gone through the roof. And not because of fuel prices.

Actually it is very much because of fuel prices, though other factors may contribute.  Ethanol production has quadrupled since just a few years ago and the land used to produce it is taking away from land which could be used to feed us and our "flocks".  Not only that, but it appears that Ethanol production has a net negative effect on carbon emissions. 

A stupid article

But now comes word that expanding ethanol use is likely to mean not less CO2 in the atmosphere, but more. Instead of reducing greenhouse gas emissions from gasoline by 20 percent - the estimate Congress relied on in requiring the huge increase in production - ethanol use will cause such emissions to nearly double over the next 30 years.

The problem, laid out in two new studies in the journal Science, is that it takes a lot of land to grow biofuel feedstocks such as corn, and as forests or grasslands are cleared for crops, large amounts of CO2 are released. Diverting land in this fashion also eliminates "carbon sinks," which absorb atmospheric CO2. Bottom line: The government's ethanol mandate will generate a "carbon debt" that will take decades, maybe centuries, to pay off.

Actually, that's not quite the bottom line. Jacking up ethanol production causes other problems, too. Deforestation. Loss of biodiversity. Depletion of aquifers. More ethanol even means more hunger: As more of the US corn crop goes for ethanol, the price of corn has been soaring, a calamity for Third World countries in which corn is a major dietary staple.

This info is from the journal Science, not some rag tag blog.  You need a subscription to read it but listen to the podcast from 8 Feb '08.  Science Podcast.  It's funny that Roadkill turned me on to it .  It's a direct result of the "panic" TC mentioned.  This just highlights the problems with having the government mandate "solutions" to global warming.  The cure may be worse than the disease. 

3/12/2008 1:28 AM


Designated Norwegian

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I'm aware that the effects of global warming will not be felt equally everywhere. I put that article to spur discussion. It is funny that you use the more powerful storms scenario since that is not supported by the facts... which brings us to our next section.


-You're not supported by the facts! In any case, you're probably referring to the Landsea data when you say that it's not supported by the facts. Of course, Landsea's data only covers one part of the world. Hurricanes and cyclones aren't the only storms you know.

I have read the IPCC article. I even read much of the summary of the IPCC report you linked to. The question is whether or not they came to their conclusions in an unbiassed manner. The "Landsea Affair" doesn't exist on Wiki so far as I can tell. All I can find is this this and this. Heck, the first one is where I got the link to Landsea's letter. So go ahead and set me straight.


-That's what I've read as well, maybe we read it differently. For one, if criticism of the IPCC comes from both sides, claiming that it is too conservative and overstating the dangers, then it is hard to call them biased.

Having weather stations collect temperature while located on blacktop on buildings in major cities and near transformers is bound to inflate the numbers a bit don'cha think?


Map of the world as imagined by Anthony Watts:

Map of the world in reality:


-Only half the weather stations are below NOAA standards, data isn't simply accepted blindly, and SurfaceStations.org has not been able to show that "those violations are i) giving measurable differences to temperatures, or ii) they are imparting a bias (and not just random errors) into the overall dataset"(Gavin Schmidt). Now try to find the rest of the mistakes yourself, me pointing out everything for you won't help you much.
3/12/2008 4:26 AM


Udderly ridiculous

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Isn't "Global Warming" a stereotypical topic for the Politics and Religion thread?
3/12/2008 1:09 PM


Elite Pathogen

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In any case, you're probably referring to the Landsea data when you say that it's not supported by the facts. Of course, Landsea's data only covers one part of the world. Hurricanes and cyclones aren't the only storms you know.

Well Landsea specialized in those storms and even though we all get the impression that they are affected by global warming, his beef was that the data didn't support that while it was being reported that it did.  So my statement may or may not be totally correct but I'm skeptical that frequency and intensity of storms will vary that much.  I think a more likely effect would be where the storms go via the jet stream, and other air currents. 

-That's what I've read as well, maybe we read it differently. For one, if criticism of the IPCC comes from both sides, claiming that it is too conservative and overstating the dangers, then it is hard to call them biased.

But the criticism coming from the side stating that it is too conservative [in it's estimates] is being critical of how outdated the report was and that it didn't factor in new data.  The Landsea issue directly points to specific bias in one of the lead authors of the report.  He went in with assumptions and didn't let go of them when the data showed otherwise.  The IPCC report is a colaboration of scientific and political entities.  Just as science shouldn't be affected by religion, it shouldn't be affected by politics either.  While we shouldn't throw out everything in the IPCC report as junk science, we shouldn't take it as gospel truth either.  I don't see a problem with having a skeptical eye on the matter.

Anthony Watts.  Well, yes he's only surveyed thermometers in the U.S. because he's just getting started and because he's not funded and he lives in the U.S.  We have the most of these though than any other country (at least per sq. mile) and if it happens here, it's probably happening elsewhere as well.  The point is that the methods are flawed, not that there aren't other ways of getting the data.  Satelites are able to get the most accurate readings but they haven't been around all century. 

-Only half the weather stations are below NOAA standards

Perhaps you are looking at a different graph than I am.

Here's the rating guide so you know what "CRN" means:


Climate Reference Network Rating Guide - adopted from NCDC Climate Reference Network Handbook, 2002, specifications for siting (section 2.2.1) of NOAA's new Climate Reference Network:

Class 1 - Flat and horizontal ground surrounded by a clear surface with a slope below 1/3 (<19deg). Grass/low vegetation ground cover <10 centimeters high. Sensors located at least 100 meters from artificial heating or reflecting surfaces, such as buildings, concrete surfaces, and parking lots. Far from large bodies of water, except if it is representative of the area, and then located at least 100 meters away. No shading when the sun elevation >3 degrees.

Class 2 - Same as Class 1 with the following differences. Surrounding Vegetation <25 centimeters. No artificial heating sources within 30m. No shading for a sun elevation >5deg.

Class 3 (error 1C) - Same as Class 2, except no artificial heating sources within 10 meters.

Class 4 (error >= 2C) - Artificial heating sources <10 meters.

Class 5 (error >= 5C) - Temperature sensor located next to/above an artificial heating source, such a building, roof top, parking lot, or concrete surface."


Looks more like 70% are a Class 4 or 5.  Besides, half is a pretty big number.

data isn't simply accepted blindly, and SurfaceStations.org has not been able to show that "those violations are i) giving measurable differences to temperatures, or ii) they are imparting a bias (and not just random errors) into the overall dataset"(Gavin Schmidt).

I don't doubt Gavin Schmidt said it, as it would be in line with his view on Global Warming but do you have a link as to where he said it? 

Now try to find the rest of the mistakes yourself, me pointing out everything for you won't help you much.

Well, if I had all day to do so, perhaps I could but I gotta earn a living you know .

3/12/2008 1:12 PM


Elite Pathogen

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Isn't "Global Warming" a stereotypical topic for the Politics and Religion thread?

Hmm, if we keep on talking about the IPCC report it would .  Then again, I don't really see the science side of it as political, though there are definately political aspects to it.  If a mod wants to move it, feel free. 

3/12/2008 9:01 PM


First Lieutenant

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NO. No it is not because of fuel prices(mainly). You have heard of Farm Subsidies? Have you taken a look at all the farm and Ranch tax breaks, very much including fuel. Buying "Red" dyed diesel fuel to power tractors and other devices costs far less than the average gallon of diesel fuel. That is why it is red. It is illegal to use it for anything else other than agriculture. Our Government works very hard to keep fuel prices down for AG. Very little if any tax, and AG can retrieve THIS cost in AG tax filings. I've farmed and ranched for almost fourty years now. I know what I'm talking about. I don't need an "expert" to tell me late season growing periods are hotter and drier. These are the critical periods for all feed crops. Especially Legumes (grasses) such as Timothy, and Rye. Higher temps and less water cause less leaf and more stem. The nutrients most effectively used by bovine are contained in the leaf. So even if you have a whole field of grass, you have less nutrient value. If a crop "burns" (turns brown), it is almost useless. The Government will pay for these losses but only to a point. There is no great offset to burned fields, such is offered in fuel. So, my statement, not because of fuel prices. This is why more and more hay is being imported from Canada into the US. I should have clarified my statement. I sometimes forget that these things are not common knowledge.
An interesting thing happened about fifteen years ago along the Montana/Canadian border. You may have heard about it. Didn't make the news much for some reason. But Ranchers in Montana had gotten fed up with being undercut in Price by Canadian Farmers and ranchers on hay prices. It was driving them out of business. They blocked border highways denying access to Canadian trucks hauling hay into the US. I think this lasted about one day. I also think I remember fuel being much higher in Canada.