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3/25/2008 7:38 PM


Grognard fantôme

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This thread reminds me of a quote that a fellow over on the Matrix Games site uses as his signature (and YES I DO recognize that the pot is not exactly lilly white here . . .)

"Arguing on the internet is liking running in the Special Olympics. Even if you win, you're still retarded."

3/25/2008 10:08 PM


sweetP

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We're not arguing. We're debating.

Besides, I tend to think that this little corner of the web is somewhat different.
5/8/2008 1:23 AM


Elite Pathogen

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This thread reminds me of a quote that a fellow over on the Matrix Games site uses as his signature (and YES I DO recognize that the pot is not exactly lilly white here . . .)

"Arguing on the internet is liking running in the Special Olympics. Even if you win, you're still retarded."

Doesn't that remind you of the entire P&R forum then .

Alright, I've been way too busy but ran across this article:

Next decade 'may see no warming'

The Earth's temperature may stay roughly the same for a decade, as natural climate cycles enter a cooling phase, scientists have predicted.

A new computer model developed by German researchers, reported in the journal Nature, suggests the cooling will counter greenhouse warming.

However, temperatures will again be rising quickly by about 2020, they say.

"One message from our study is that in the short term, you can see changes in the global mean temperature that you might not expect given the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)," said Noel Keenlyside from the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University.

Looks like we've got another 10 years to figure things out... ironically, the last 10 years have been a wash as far as any warming goes as well.

5/8/2008 2:05 AM


First Lieutenant

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I'm afraid the signs under my very feet disagree with the "scientific facts".  Sorry, but I've been on this Earth for fourty eight years.  For the last twenty years the ground has remained unfrozen in the North for longer periods of time.  Infact, in the Northeast this year the ground only froze once for about a week.  And only to a depth of about one half inch.

Spring is here now and the wasps and ants are numerous early on.  A long "normal" freeze means less pests.  Say hello to the inheritor's of Earth the next time an ant scurries past.

5/8/2008 2:08 AM


Culture-Monger

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Black Owl (5/8/2008)
I'm afraid the signs under my very feet disagree with the "scientific facts". Sorry, but I've been on this Earth for fourty eight years. For the last twenty years the ground has remained unfrozen in the North for longer periods of time. Infact, in the Northeast this year the ground only froze once for about a week. And only to a depth of about one half inch.

Spring is here now and the wasps and ants are numerous early on. A long "normal"freeze means less pests. Say hello to the inheritor's of Earth the next time an ant scurries past.
I agree, although I've only been around half as long as you, the last 10 years for me have been totally different then the first 16. I've seen the evidence to support both sides of this story. While I definitely agree that things are changing, I don't feel that they are as bad as Algore says. For the record, I think he's as bad as that Micheal Moore dude.
5/8/2008 11:39 AM


Elite Pathogen

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Well, note that our flat decade is a plateau so we're still above what we were 30 years ago.  Also keep in mind that there is variability regionally as well.  Just because your area is warmer, does not mean another is not cooler.  We actually had a long cold winter.  The ground is normally frozen solid for about 2 to 4 weeks in Utah while this year I think it was more like 6 (totally anecdotal here ).  Our temperatures have been way below normal as well for spring.  Trees didn't start getting leaves until about 3 weeks ago!  That's a month later than usual.  That said, I didn't grow up here and people who have tell me that winters are much less harsh than they were when they were younger. 

The real point of the article is to show that there are no "scientific facts" when it comes to predicting future climate.  In the end, we can only guess.  Also, we just assume that climate is being adversely affected by our actions when the climate changes without us all the time.  How can we tell that it is us that is changing the climate?  Our little spell of "predictable" climate is not the norm.  In fact, there are indications that we're still in the "Ice Age" and that this is just one of those warm periods in between.  There were many warm periods, roughly 10,000 years long for the last few hundred thousand years IIRC. 

Now, you are the expert Black Owl, so what's better for growing, long cold winters or shorter winters with long growing periods?  Is precipitation more important?  If you have a short (comparatively) winter with a large snow pack, isn't that better than a long winter with little snow?  How does a warmer climate affect growing?

5/8/2008 2:00 PM


First Lieutenant

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[Now, you are the expert Black Owl, so what's better for growing, long cold winters or shorter winters with long growing periods?  Is precipitation more important?  If you have a short (comparatively) winter with a large snow pack, isn't that better than a long winter with little snow?  How does a warmer climate affect growing?] jerm

Who said anything about me being an expert.  I do have "on the ground" experience, yes.  Meaning I can step out my front door and observe the world around me.  And you know what?  Maybe some other "experts" here should try the same? 

You must know how general your questions are.  It depends on the crop (plant), soil conditions/PH/loam/clay/shale, altitude, humidity, how many days of sunshine, how many days of overcast without precipitation, (because I have seen fields dry out under days of over cast.), so as you state, locale plays a huge part.  But I'm not sure of the point your driving at other than that which we already agree on.  I think the point that is being missed in the science aspect of this discussion is that, while yes, there are highs and lows, in the relative short term, the overall temps continue to ratchet up.  This according to some "experts", denied by other "experts".  The question I think is, are we effecting a global change or NON-change?  Meaning are we through our Human activities blocking what might be a normal down turn?  I never said I had the answers to this.  I simply put forth MY observations of the last twenty years or so.

I have lived in the west also.  I was at Camp Williams, Salt Lake City for a short two weeks of PLDC training with the Army.  It was the end of March/beginning of April.  I went through all four seasons in the two weeks I was there.  You and I know, tho you have not mentioned it, how fickle the Rocky mountains truly are.  Which is why I didn't bat an eye at your saying what a terrible winter it was there.  The Rockies, because of elevation, see faster weather changes and greater extremes.  You are I'm sure aware of that FACT also.  The saying out there is, "if you don't like the weather, wait fifteen minutes, it'll change."  I have ranched/cowboyed, camped/lived, guided hunts/fishing trips, in the Northern and central Rocky Mountains.  I've seen it go through all four seasons in one day!  And some winters we get the average twenty feet of snow pack in the rockies.  But it doesn't always mean the temps are up.  I've been in sub-zero blizzards, as I'm sure you have. 

In the Rockies, a heavy snow pack is needed for irrigation and general use by livestock and Humans.  Back east here, the spring rains are a greater contributor to the water table.  Lack of normal precipe creates situations now being suffered in the Southeast.  I saw the fires are back in Florida.  Above normal rainfall and you get the situation now being suffered in the upper Midwest. 

Look, I'm not trying to convince anyone here that the "sky is falling".  I will leave that to the "experts" to argue over.  But don't be so quick to down play what the older folks in your region are saying about the climate.  Especially Mom & Pop Farmer/Rancher.  They are not planing their year to year crops around Global Warming, just yet.  Not as far as I can observe.  Things are still pretty status quo. (except possibly more drought and pest resistant crop strains)  But they are talking about the changes since they were children.  For one to notice a change in one generation, maybe that might hint at extreme changes in the next few decades.  I don't know.  But I'm not gonna stick my head in the dirt and say "it'll just blow over".  I guess the best I can take away from all of this is just a "heads up" warning at this point.  Only a fool could possibly pass the discussion (atleast) off as just two sides arguing about nothing.

A quick answer to one of the questions you pose.  Longer growing seasons are better than shorter ones in general.  But keep also in mind that longer warm spells and warmer winters are also welcomed by pests like "Corn Worms", Gypsy Moths, Grasshoppers, Locusts, Mice and Rats.  All threats to crops from corn to managed timber.  Their populations also soar.  I'm speaking in the Rural frame of reference.  

5/8/2008 4:03 PM


Elite Pathogen

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Whoa there Black Owl, it was a genuine question.  I wasn't trying to drive at anything.  The reason I said you were an "expert" was because I got the impression you have had experience working on a farm or ranch.  I'm sorry if it came off as confrontational but that was not my intent. 

I can attest to your observation of having several seasons in one day, especially during March/April.  That said, winters are predictably cold and summers are predictably hot.  We had snow (that stuck) last week and high 70's the day before.  Now, this doesn't mean anything since we've had snow as late as June, but it is rare.  My only point is that climate is different regionally. 

The direction I was going with my question though, is to question whether a warmer climate is necessarily worse than a relatively cold climate.  If we have longer seasons to grow crops, doesn't that mean more food for growing populations?  You make a good point about pests and droughts but will technology help us deal with them?  Is it a net gain from longer growing periods? 

Look, just as we should not take lightly the fact that the earth may be warming, my fear is that we take drastic measures which either make things worse, or have such a small benefit and at the same time harm the globe's economies.  I am always dubious of panics and man made global warming 'solutions' feels like a panic.

Furthermore, I think that it's good to question the consensus on lots of issues.  There is little questioning of "man made global warming" so here I am.