Is Violence Neccesary?
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Is Violence Neccesary?Expand / Collapse
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5/14/2008 9:12 AM


Radical Centrist

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aren't the Emirates a bad example, M? IIRC, hardly any of their budget actually comes from the oil these days, what with all the fun and games revenues they have coming in!
5/14/2008 9:32 AM
lame duck

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Economies never exist alone (even US not exempt from this rule)

I used Emirates bcz I think they are the ripest for a fall. So in this way if I am wrong on how profound will be the effect of retreat of oil prices (immidiet peace in Iraq), then I will be at least right about them

5/14/2008 11:57 AM


Elite Pathogen

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It's important to keep in mind that OPEC only controls a third of the world market and the Arabs are not the only members.  They have some degree of control on price but not as much as in years past.  So, this is why a 5% increase won't have a huge effect.  There is already competition that OPEC has to compete with.  The ANWR oil reserves will help, but I don't think it will put them in a recession.  That won't happen until the oil runs out and in this, they do have the most of it.  Don't get me wrong, I'm all for drilling in ANWR.  I just don't think it will solve the world's problems. 
5/14/2008 12:13 PM
lame duck

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Jerm

I thought we were not talking about world problems (aka independence form fossil fuels), but rather of terrorizm & what is feeding it.

5/14/2008 12:29 PM


Elite Pathogen

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Well, terrorism is a world problem is it not?  That is what I meant BTW.
5/14/2008 12:38 PM
lame duck

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Hmm... no terorizm is an American problem, since the other half of the world (arabs, russians, etc) seem to not mind it that much.

By the way I see ur point now

5/14/2008 1:07 PM


Radical Centrist

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Isn't terrorism also a problem for England, Spain, Morrocco (Casablanca), Indonesia (Bali), India, Germany (thwarted attacks), Saudi Arabia (thwarted  attacks), Turkey (PKK), Algeria (Salafists), etc. etc. etc. etc. etc.?

And of course UAE are ripest for a fall, they have climbed the highest, have they not? Sure a lot of the banking goes through them, so if/when the oil boom collapses they will suffer in that regard, but if a lot of their economy now is not directly petro-based income, shouldn't they also be buffered?

Boy, this thread sure is off-topic!    

5/14/2008 5:45 PM


Elite Pathogen

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Okay, back on track .  So, the point is that by upping the supply, it gives the Arab states less money to spend on terrorism.  I am slightly dubious as to how much they actually spend on terrorism as I think they spend it all on luxuries and investment.  I suppose some will spend on terror (like Iran I guess?) so we'll go with that.  Dependence on others for energy will always be a given I think, at least until oil is out of the picture.  Let's be honest and say we want to become dependent from states who want to harm us or our friends.  I have zero problems with giving Canada money for oil, it's those nasty, despotic states that we want to be dependent from.  In reality I believe that new technologies which get us off of oil will have an effect in that we will have no reason to care about what happens over there.  Apparently the terrorists attack us because we meddle in their affairs and we meddle in their affairs because we need their oil.  Take oil out of the equation and things may get better.  I think that is a far better solution than increasing the supply.  Once again, I'm all for increasing the supply as it will have an effect on price, just not world conditions.
5/14/2008 6:04 PM
lame duck

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Yep, new technology has always been the right answer.

LC, those are isolated examples w/local effects. Only America is fighting a "Global" war on terror. England is just there by default, so are some other countries, but it is primarily an American problem in me view.

PKK dont even count, their igenda is completely something else.