Offshore Drilling time?
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7/6/2008 10:32 PM


Grognard fantôme

Grognard fantôme

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Will ty to get to this tomorrow when I'm mor cogent. Remind me if I'm derelict.
7/7/2008 2:19 AM


Udderly ridiculous

Udderly ridiculous

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If fewer population is wanted... what are some non-nefarious ways to accomplish this? Governmental tax breaks to people who have fewer kids, rather than tax breaks for more? Pay young people to sterilize themselves? Make women wear burkas? What else?
7/7/2008 8:06 AM


Grognard fantôme

Grognard fantôme

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Jerm you're right that the Earth COULD hold many more thousands of times what it currently holds, but the question is: what would the Earth be like under those circumstances?

At present, Earth is an "ecological disaster." Major natural ecosystems that remained largely intact at around 10,000 BC are largely relicts. We need to get back to that sustainable homeostasis, and we have the technology, the morality, and the intelligence to do it.

As for how to make a 1000 year pattern persist? Change the Culture.

The Teachings of Jesus emerged more than 2000 years ago and have not just 'hung in there,' they have spread, persisted, and come to thrive.

7/7/2008 12:46 PM


Elite Pathogen

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Whether or not the earth is an "ecological disaster" is a matter of opinion, though I respect it.  Many ecological systems are certainly not what they were 10,000 years ago but whether or not mankind's large population is 'good' or 'bad' is a matter of opinion.  I think one can objectively say that the earth would be "different" with higher populations, even as it is different now than it was a century ago.  I'd certainly agree that we should take measures to limit our impact and even repair what we can.  I think with technology, this will be more and more possible, especially with a society that cares. 

I also have a problem with your "teachings of Jesus" cultural analogy.  Firstly, I did not say that cultures cannot continue for thousands of years, only that I'm skeptical that cultures which advocate (or at least are successful at this) depopulation can exist for thousands of years.  You've mentioned that several societies throughout history have chosen to limit their populations.  Could you mention a few?  Not that I don't believe you, I'd just like to be able to comment on them and compare them with our (western) society and discover how long they lasted with this policy in place. 

7/7/2008 1:55 PM


Elite Pathogen

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Found this article just from a skim of google:

Population Policy Dilemmas in Europe at the Dawn of the Twenty-First Century- Paul Demeny

I'm not sure who this guy is and if it supports either of our sides but it seems apt to the discussion.  I think you'd at least find it interesting Scip.

7/7/2008 9:13 PM


Grognard fantôme

Grognard fantôme

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Cool, thanks for the link.

As for "populations that have willingly restricted their growth: virtually all the industrial powers underwent the Demographic Transition back in the 19th century, and many other nations are undergoing it today.

Part of this is couples having fewer children.

I think I now see what it is I need to write my book on . . . hope you guys don't mind if I try out different ideas on youze.

Thing about being in higher education for about 22 years straight: you stop perceiving what normal people automatically know in an instant with your head up in the clouds. Maybe that is why so many times my posts on here seem to end threads? Engaged to post some more, but a bit tired tonight.

As for whether "more people = more environmental degradation," being debatable, you are likely correct that there is a fundamental debate there. But I'll be if I set about collecting the evidence, I can formulate a very cogent argument that more people will (all else being equal) always lead to more environmental degradation.

 . . . wow, finally 1BC might just prove to be a seed-bed for something that can go on my CV

ADDIT: one point I should make: I might argue pretty heavily in favor of declining population sizes, and my 'intuition' is strongly leaned in that direction. But in honesty, I have not yet done all the background work that I sincerely know I need to do to reach the 99% confidence interval (let alone the 95%). I will with skepticism acknowledge that technology might even allow bigger and BIGGER populations to create better, and BETTER human-natural ecological sustainability. But I'm highly, HIGHLY dubious of such an hypothesis in any short- to medium-term time-frame, which I do believe is the time-frame that needs to be considered.

Some of these "Global Warming" guys on here I know detest me because I'm a fly in their ointment. But I do agree heartily with them that we need to be highly 'up in arms' about the state of Earth's natural ecologies. I am just skeptical that it can be such a simplified story as "human industrializtion=global warming: therefore, reduce carbon emissions = silver bullet."

I think most of the actual environmental problems that derive from human beings have more to do with our use of geography than anything else: habitat loss, riverine sequestration, etc.

Anyway, anyone who is keen to get in on this, I want to invite you to speak your mind. It will help me in actually moving forward on the book. And I need to write the book to decide which hypothesis seems more tenable (a) Jerm's "Technology Can/Will Save Us" hypothesis or my own (b) There are too many of us hypothesis.

ADDIT: thought this was appropos, Malaysian Girl having Fun at MMU University

7/7/2008 11:14 PM


Day-Saver!

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Don't know how relevant this would be to your book, Scip, but an interesting case scenario with regards to societal depopulation is Japan. In terms of fertility rates, Japan looks much like Western Europe/Canada/Australia etc. But unlike these countries, esp. Western Europe, Japan has virtually no immigration and no growing Islamic population, so there are relatively no buffers in place in Japan to affront the shrinking population. In terms of it's current economy, Japan is likely projecting upon it self the societal Hari kiri in the decades to come. So you want a good analysis of non-imposed voluntary depopulation, one need look no further than the land of the rising sun.
7/8/2008 12:25 PM


Elite Pathogen

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The Demographic Transition link was helpful and even helped me understand the article I posted .  For some reason I had pictured ancient, classical and medieval civilizations when you said, "throughout history."  The thing with the DT is that it seems to be a natural progression as societies become more industrialized and free and especially, the introduction and availability of contraception.  What's the need for a push by governments?  If anything, spreading these values to the developing world is what is needed.  Also, we have yet to see the final outcome of the Demographic Transition in Europe.  It appears the The U.S. never really followed this trend either.  We still have more births than we do deaths, though our growth is slow and steady.  Not really arguing here, just commenting...  
7/8/2008 3:48 PM


Grognard fantôme

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Good point about Japan LC, and yes you are correct Jerm: the DT is not the same everywhere it has occurred, but it did occur in U.S. too. DT does not necessarily mean zero birth growth. It just means dramatically reduced birth and death rates: in short, a slower circulation of people or as I would put it: an emphasis on Quality instead of Quantity.

Guys, I still don't think you are even really getting my point on this, which maybe is a good sign that it might really be a controversial book.

Currently there are nearly 7 billion human beings 7,000,000,000. Through most of human natural history, that figure probably hovered in the millions.