Israel encourging Bush to attack Iran?
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Israel encourging Bush to attack Iran?Expand / Collapse
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7/2/2008 4:33 PM


Elite Pathogen

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It should be noted that making a suitcase nuke ain't particularly easy.  While the U.S. and Russia have produced nukes as small as a small refrigerator, none have been produced that could actually fit into a normal looking suitcase that somebody could just carry around unnoticed (though they could be carried around).  As of right now, the idea of a suitcase nuke is still (probably) science fiction.  That's not to say such a thing couldn't be developed, but it's not a likely scenario right now, especially in a country like Iran who doesn't have the funding and infrastructure capabilities that a big nation like the U.S. or Russia do.  That said, apparently Russia is missing 100 of these smaller nukes but that has nothing to do with Iran developing them.
7/2/2008 7:27 PM


Day-Saver!

Day-Saver!

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Ok, that's fine, but let that not distract from my main point pertaining to the islamist/jihadist agents within the country. Maybe it won't be miniature nuclear weapons, but maybe it WILL be dirty bombs that rely on materials derived FROM nuclear materials. While not as...shall we say... explosive as nuclear weapons, they can still do a lot of damage. And even if Iran may not be able to get a "suitcase nuke" into the country, the desire for nukes is there to protect their assets at home and perhaps enhance their regional hegemony. See, there is something called the great Sunni/Shia divide, and realistically speaking, in the Middle East, Israel should be the least of Iran's concern. Israel has no inherent animosity towards Iran, but Iran and the Saudis, for example and other Sunnis in the area haven't always been the best of friends.
7/2/2008 8:20 PM


Elite Pathogen

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Dirty bombs are probably just as difficult to smuggle in, if not more so.  Wiki:

An example of a worst case scenario is a terror organization possessing a source of very highly radioactive material, e.g. a strontium-90 thermal generator, with the ability to create an incident comparable to the Chernobyl accident. Although the detonation of a dirty bomb using such a source might seem terrifying, it would be hard to assemble the bomb and transport it without severe radiation damage and possible death of the perpetrators involved. Shielding the source effectively would make it almost impossible to transport and a lot less effective if detonated.

Iran could spend the money on purchasing the material on the black market if they really wanted to hit America with a dirty bomb.  They'd save a lot of money and have a lower risk of getting caught. 

the desire for nukes is there to protect their assets at home and perhaps enhance their regional hegemony.

I suspect this is very much the case... especially the latter half.

7/2/2008 8:59 PM


Grognard fantôme

Grognard fantôme

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My understanding of what Iran is striving for is not to produce fissile material that would be suitable for dirty bombs, or so-called "suitcase nukes." If that is all they want, I imagine that it would be far more efficient to simply purchase it on the black market. Pakistan, Russia, China or RNK are probably readily available sources of both the material, and the "help desk" assistance to get a few of these weapons up and running.

Honestly, I've become skeptical that it is/would be "relatively easy" to create and smuggle such a weapon into a U.S. port, but that may just be ignorance. It would be interesting to read some actual empirical factual information on this instead of just arm-waving. I agree that these seem on the surface of it to be real and serious threats worth considering, but if that is true, why have no such strikes been carried out in the last 6.875 years when Al Qaeda escalated the Islamofascist War on the West, and the U.S. went into semi-offensive mode? Since 2001, probably hundreds of thousands of Muslims have died at the hand of Coalition (meaning Western forces). The situation in Iraq has gone from victory, to quagmire, to better, to worse, to seemingly (in the minds of most Western media) hopeless, to now "unimportant" by virtue of the fact that there is not much "bad news" to be told. In short, "We are winning," and the Islamofascists are "losing." You'd think that during all that time, if attacks like those you outline were real prospects that Iran or whomever would have carried it out, woudn't you? That makes me skeptical that any claims that such a threat is a major one might just be speculative if not alarmist in nature.

I'm also skeptical that there are so many "sleeper" Islamofascist agents waiting to be activated, but a bit less skeptical. The fact is, Islamofascism remains a highly divisive, diffuse, uncentralized, panoply of small groups and even independent individuals. Yes, there may be a couple thousand prospective "sleepers" in the U.S., but without any coherent central command and control what exactly are they going to do? If there is any nation or other entity with some promise it would seem to be Iran, and I agree that, it would seem to be a highly motivated goal for the current leadership in Iran to carry out such a strike on the U.S. If it was 2003 or even 2005 maybe I'd go along with the concerns you express with less skepticism, but it is nearly 7 years since the major hostilities of the Islamofascist War began and we've seen ZERO activity on the part of them in the U.S. It would be intersting to know how many attacks or planned attacks have been thwarted.

My analogy is important because it points out the basic truth: Iran can only argue for the legitimacy and expediency of a nuclear program by virtue of positioning itself as an adversary of the U.S. and her allies, unlike say Canada, Italy or Costa Rica, which are friendly and unconfrontational with the U.S. I'm sure many nations have a grievance or 30 with the U.S. and that they pursue resolution of those conflicts through a variety of public relations, legal, and diplomatic means, but they do not define themselves in terms of an inevitable clash of diametrically opposed moral opposites with the clear explication of inevitable violence.

In short, resistance is futile; building some piddly nuclear bombs to sit on top of some piddly short range missiles is both silly and futile. Iran does not have the wherewithal to win the long-term struggle against globalization. China and Russia have given up on playing the role of "anti-Capitalist" anti-American foil, what sense is there in some dinky, backwards nation like Iran or Venezuela or RNK acting as the bull dog for these lost causes? To be sure, the Russians and the Chinese are not major inner-circle allies, but they have also loosened up on their rivalrousness. They realized they couldn't beat "us" (or more precisely the consumer and civic forces of globalization) so they have by-degrees "joined us." Iran, Venezeula, RNK, and other hold-out numb-skull states need to wake up and smell the coffee: you cannot beat us, might as well 'join us,' like just about everyone else.

If we're gonna get on with establishing the United Federation of Planets, we need to start making progress toward that an Earth with ruled by one-common government and we only have a couple centuries to get on track with the Roddenberry schedule.

7/3/2008 4:36 AM


Udderly ridiculous

Udderly ridiculous

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Hey, I want in on this debate. Wait... what exactly are you guys debating?

In the eyes of the world, or the U.N. and each nation being sovereign, and all nations being equal to each other, in importance, sovereignty, authority, etc. This obviously is not the case in regards to power of wealth, industry, military and many other things, but in theory, each nation is just as sovereign and important as the next. Iran and many countries that complain of US arrogance want the right to be equal as us on everything. I do think it is a double standard to not allow others to get nuclear weapons, but have OODLES ourselves and not be very interested in reducing what we have. To say to another nation that you can't have peaceful nuclear reactors, but when oil prices impact us, we freely talk about building more of our own... that is also a double standard. But, I know I don't want Iran to have nuclear weapons, so what do we do?

In my opinion, things will probably continue down this path until nations that have them already rumble with others that have them already and they use them on each other. Whoever that is. Only then will the world be interested in dismantling the existing ones as well. For many, it will be too late. Thats how I think things will go.
7/3/2008 9:31 AM


Grognard fantôme

Grognard fantôme

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The idea of a "sovereign nation" as it is conceived in the fundamental organization of the U.N. is an obsolete and unhelpful idea. "Nations" need to be following suit with the EU: reduction of national boundaries and increased integration between former nations.

Moreover, the conceptual framework of the U.N. is oxymoronic. The putative primary purpose of the organization is to promote common welfare of humanity, but the secondary (and implicit?) structural basis for doing this is to entrench sovereign boundaries through the idea that "all nations have equal rights to sovereignty?" I'm not even aware of this being one of the explicit principles in the U.N. because if it were, it would promote secessions. Imagine Renaissance Italy . . . we do not need to be going back in that direction.

Moreover, even if such a concept of "every one who wants to have sovereignty deserves to have it" actually IS part of U.N. principle, it is contradicted by repeated actions of that organization. Imposing sanctions, embargoes, or simply writing letters to sovereign entities to "tell them how angry we are with them" is a fundamental contradiction of the idea that they can do whatever they want as a sovereign!

I find it hard to imagine the negative consequences if all aspects of the U.N. except the international dialogue, and the forum for integrating humanitarian efforts were scrapped.

ADDIT: on the point of "To say to another nation that you can't have peaceful nuclear reactors, but when oil prices impact us, we freely talk about building more of our own... that is also a double standard;' my understanding is that the specific type of nuclear facilities which the Iranians are striving to put into operation are NOT useful for nuclear power. They are ONLY useful for producing material for nuclear explosive devices. As such, any reference to such a double standard is a straw man comment/argument that can only serve to distract attention from the real issue: Iran is striving to build nuclear facilities that are ONLY suited to produce nuclear weapons. Many international, and national entities (the EU, NATO, the UN, and several nations including the U.S., but excepting China, Russia, RNK, Pakistan, and Venezeula to name a few rogues) have stated explicitly and repeatedly that the do not approve, and vigorously insist that Iran discontinue these efforts to create such nuclear facilities. In Civ4 terms: "the world" thinks the current Iranian leadership is a "villain."

7/3/2008 10:39 AM


die with honor

die with honor

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Well I don't care what you guys say I think Iran's first lady is a hottie!!



7/4/2008 1:53 AM


Udderly ridiculous

Udderly ridiculous

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Booo! BOOO! Har har har! Okay, funny.

7/4/2008 11:10 AM