Help Fight America's Oil Crisis
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7/13/2008 9:57 AM


Grognard fantôme

Grognard fantôme

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That raises this question for me Nukau: where are these "speculators?" Who are these speculators? Are they all U.S. citizens? Do they all live in and work under the regulations of the U.S.? Or are some of them maybe Russians? Or maybe Venezeulans, or Chinese?

Like I said, I'm no economist . . . but I'm reminded of one market-forces story about which I know a little bit because of working on the history of southern Africa a tad bit.

Diamonds. They were worthless up till some time in the 19th century. Too hard to be worked with previously, and no obvious use. Began to change in more recent history, but then esp. because of a major marketing scheme (initially in Europe IMS but then also in N. Am) to pose Diamonds as the "Zeus" (or Hera?) of the gem pantheon. Timeless, pure, glasslike . . . In a matter of a couple generations the notion of the Diamond ring as an integral part of the "traditional" Euro White Wedding was born, and simultaneously DeBeers was buying up all the best known diamond-producing areas. The Russians got into the game in the 20th century.

As you may know, these rocks are not cheap, but that is not because they are not plentiful. My understanding is that there are warehouses FULL of these rocks in Holland and Russian (and Australia too?). Their high value is largely artificial through two mechanisms (a) ongoing marketing campaign that started ~150 years ago and has people convinced that Diamonds are the most traditional, most meaningful, and most substantial betrothal gift; (b) hoarding by the producer.

I know oil is a different kind of thing. If I hop in my car, I can be at the parking lot for my office in about 12 or 14 minutes, whereas it would take me about 19 minutes on my bike.

Ironically though, for me in my special highly contrived circumstance (meaning I sought to live where I live for the specific purpose of biking to work) the bike vs the car work out to be about equal. When you add in the ~10 min to walk from the parking lot to the office it works out to be about equal to biking: door to door about 25 minutes either way, but then I don't sweat in the car. The faster I go in the car, the more I risk hurting someone, or getting a ticket. The faster I go on the bike the longer I live (assuming I'm riding safely, and not going fast weaving in and out of traffic! :w00t

7/13/2008 1:14 PM


Impeached by a patch

Impeached by a patch

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cleopatra143 (7/10/2008)
You are right in some respects but if I was a business owner (and I have been), the first thing I would do is cut the fat so to speak. Perhaps I am too idealistic. However I know that many airlines have already started charging customers for baggage, taking out in flight entertainment, carry less items, scheduling less flights, laying off personnel, etc. So they are trying it would seem, but probably not in the way they should. If you are facing an economic downturn, the last thing you want to do is start handing out bonus' and fat checks to the people at the top. I guess that's just me though. Too bad.


It would depend. If the marginal negative utility suffered (poorer management) by losing the CEOs is higher than the amount of money saved, it would not make sense to cut down those bonuses. A saving is only worth it if you can pull it off without losing even more revenue in the process.

A few years ago, the Swedish telecommunications giant Ericsson was in deep trouble. They offered Jorma Ollila, who at the time was the CEO of its Finnish rival Nokia, 1 billion crowns (about $100,000,000) just as an entry fee if he were to defect to Ericsson!

Did they offer him such a humongous fee because they were oppressive, bloodsucking, bourgeoise, Forbes-reading Capitalist pigdogs? No. They did it because they, for real, thought that it would benefit the company. This was Ollila, the guy who had turned Nokia from a small-time consumer electronics company into the world's foremost producer of mobile phones. They thought he could do the same to Ericsson, or if nothing else, his mere reputation would have caused the value of their stock to spike.

I'm all for regulation. I would even support international taxation. Tosk and jerm would probably consider me a commie pinko if we'd get to discuss serious economics. Still, what leftists easily forget is that, in an economy, nothing exists in a vacuum, everything is related to and a consequence of everything else. That which looks outrageously wasteful might be a consequence of something else that is hugely efficient.

If companies would really be overpaying their CEOs, they wouldn't stay in business for too long. Inefficient companies tend to get disqualified by natural selection.
7/13/2008 3:19 PM


Grognard fantôme

Grognard fantôme

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. . . This was Ollila, the guy who had turned Nokia from a small-time consumer electronics company into the world's foremost producer of mobile phones. They thought he could do the same to Ericsson, or if nothing else, his mere reputation would have caused the value of their stock to spike . . .

*feigns 'tenured-radical' social theorist type attitude* Why Konrad! How dare you suggest that any mere person might have more utility than any other! It is obvious from the teachings and sincere humanism of our enlightened socialist leaders that we are all equal, and the only appropriate way to rule any organization is through committee and bureacracy.

If companies cannot provide me with my beloved products and services through collectivist, profit sharing business-designs, why, why . . . I'll just have to grumble when they go out of business cause they are outcompeted*unfeigns*

7/13/2008 3:23 PM
lame duck

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As I said before elsewhere... It is about eating or being eaten.
7/13/2008 6:08 PM


Elite Pathogen

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Nuke, if there was one single buyer or one single seller of futures, your statement would hold true, just as it does anywhere else in economics.  Sure you can plan to buy high and sell higher but if there's a smart guy who buys just a bit lower so he can actually get the sale, the first  buyer's up a creek.  There are loads of buyers and sellers in the futures market so the competition is there to keep things like driving up the price of toilet paper so we can make a killing only a goal and not a reality.  You still have to have a competitive price in the end.  If prices of oil were to suddenly fall tomorrow, all the people who bought high would lose.  I'm sure it's much more complicated than that but I think it's an accurate simplification.  Why does supply and demand not apply to the futures market?
7/13/2008 6:12 PM
lame duck

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My bank is offering gas incentives... oil prices will be a lot lower by christmas.
7/13/2008 11:48 PM


Radical Centrist

Radical Centrist

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It is obvious from the teachings and sincere humanism of our enlightened socialist leaders that we are all equal


Well, let's call a spade a spade here, Scip, that's not socialism, that's communism!!!!
7/14/2008 3:29 AM


Udderly ridiculous

Udderly ridiculous

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All animals are created equal. Some animals are more equal than others. (thats from Animal Farm, for some of you folks)

Jerm, if you think its pure capitalism, try to buy a barrel of oil yourself without going through a commodity market. Not only is it illegal (I think?) but shyeah... good luck.
7/14/2008 2:29 PM


Elite Pathogen

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Ummm... where did I say it was "pure capitalism"?